India is set to become the world’s largest cotton producer by 2034, overtaking China, on improving yields, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034.
Over the next decade, India’s cotton production is projected to grow at an annual rate of around 2 per cent, driven primarily by productivity gains rather than area expansion, the outlook said. Global cotton production over the same period is expected to grow by 1.3 per cent annually and touch 29.5 million tonnes (mt) by 2034. As per the International Cotton Advisory Committee, the output during the 202425 season is projected at 25.68 mt India is expected to account for 30 per cent of the global increase in cotton output over the outlook period by 2034, followed by Brazil (27 per cent) and the US (23 per cent).
India’s raw cotton productivity has remained stagnant in recent years, ranking among the lowest globally, with yields significantly below those of China and Brazil. By 2034, yields in India are expected to considerably increase from their current low levels but remain under the world average of 0.8 tonnes/ha. Average global yields are projected to increase by 15 per cent compared to the base period. To boost the yields, Indian researchers are promoting high-density planting systems, which involve closer plant spacing to maximise output and facilitate mechanised harvesting.
Pest-resistant genetically modified (GM) cotton, including Bt cotton, has also helped reduce pest-related yield losses. Government agencies and research institutions are actively involved in varietal development and integrated pest management initiatives to raise productivity. “Based on these considerations, the outlook assumes a high yield growth potential at 1.7 per cent per annum over the next decade, enabling India to surpass China as the world’s largest cotton producer by 2034,” it said. Global cotton trade is projected to grow steadily at 1.6 per cent annually, reaching 12.3 mt by 2034. India’s cotton consumption is projected to grow 1.3 per cent annually over the next decade.
News Courtesy : Press reader.